What are the key findings from the “Future of Maritime Fuels” report?

The Future of Maritime Fuels report from the Lloyd’s Register Maritime Decarbonisation Hub analyses emerging scenarios for shipping’s transition away from fossil fuels. It examines projections for hydrogen-based fuels, biofuels, and methanol, assessing their potential against supply, demand, and investment dynamics.

  • Hydrogen-based fuels (e- and blue ammonia): Hydrogen-derived fuels are central to shipping’s long-term transition. E-ammonia is expected to capture an average of 35% of the global marine fuel mix by 2050. When combined with blue ammonia, adoption could range between 20–60%, with demand projected to grow from 0.79 EJ in 2030 to 6.06 EJ in 2050.
  • Biofuels (liquefied bio-methane): Biofuels, particularly liquefied bio-methane, could account for around 34% of the fuel mix by 2050. However, supply is unlikely to keep pace with demand, with forecasts of only 0.3–2 EJ available compared to 4.58 EJ required.
  • Methanol (bio- and e-methanol): Despite rising interest in methanol-fuelled vessels, methanol is projected to make up only ~13.4% of demand by 2050. Supply constraints are expected to limit its role in the long-term fuel mix.

Implications for the industry

These projections underscore the uncertainty facing shipowners and investors. No single fuel is guaranteed to dominate, and the risks of supply gaps and high capital costs are significant. To meet the IMO’s ambition of near-zero GHG emissions by 2050, shipping must adopt diversified and flexible fuel strategies. Success will depend on aligning fuel production, infrastructure readiness, and large-scale investment. The report also stresses that sector-wide leadership, cross-sector collaboration, and initiatives such as green corridors are vital to de-risk adoption and scale up sustainable fuels.

What’s Next

Future work will focus on deeper analysis of how supply and fleet infrastructure interact, alongside greater collaboration between energy providers, shipping companies, and financiers. Strategic partnerships and early-mover projects will be crucial to de-risk investments and accelerate the adoption of sustainable fuels.

Frequently asked questions

What fuels are considered “future fuels” for shipping?

Future fuels include hydrogen-based options such as e-ammonia and blue ammonia, as well as biofuels like liquefied bio-methane and methanol.

Why is e-ammonia significant?

E-ammonia is considered one of the most scalable fuels, with potential to supply more than a third of the global marine fuel market by 2050.

Why might bio-methane face challenges?

While bio-methane has strong potential demand, projected supply is insufficient, creating uncertainty about its long-term role.

What role does methanol play in the transition?

Methanol offers near-term fleet compatibility but is expected to play a smaller role overall due to production limits.

How can shipowners and investors respond to uncertainty?

Stakeholders are encouraged to pursue flexible, diversified fuel strategies and to participate in green corridor initiatives that test adoption pathways under real-world conditions.